Webster Groves, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

863
FXUS63 KLSX 041130
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
630 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon over
  southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Damaging winds and
  locally heavy rainfall are possible with the strongest storms.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
  through the weekend.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

I have gone ahead and dropped the flood watch for this morning.  Do
believe there will be any additional heavy rainfall that will lead
to flash flooding early this morning.  The cold front currently
extends from near a UIN-COU-JLN line and the HREF is showing it only
moving halfway through the CWA by 00Z as shortwave trough lifts
northeast leaving southwesterly upper flow.  The radar mosaic has
shown a slow down in the eastward progress of the band of showers
over the area with the CAMS consistently keeping this band across
the central and eastern part of the CWA through tonight.  SPC has
highlighted the southeast half of the CWA in a marginal risk this
afternoon where the RAP/NAM is showing MLCAPES of 500-1500 J/kg with
weak deep layer shear suggesting that there could be localized
damaging winds.  In addition, PWATS near 2" and slow storm motions
could cause some locally heavy rainfall.

The HREF is not showing the front moving south of the CWA until
Thursday morning under the southwest upper flow.  Another weak
shortwave will move through the upper flow tonight which will keep
likely PoPs across the southeast half of the CWA.  The front will
not move too far south of the area on Thursday keeping at least
chance PoPs across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Temperatures will be cooler today with the front entering the area
and the rain/clouds.  Highs today will be in the 70s over the
northwest half of the area to the 80s ahead of the front over
southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.

Britt

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 444 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Late this week into early next week looks active with several upper
troughs moving across the area before a upper ridge builds in the
middle of next week.   Friday looks like a potentially active day as
SPC has a slight risk over southeast Missouri.  This is for either a
MCS that will be continuing from the Plains or thunderstorms
redeveloping from a remnant MCV during the heat of the day.  Either
way, there is some risk for damaging winds over the southern part of
the CWA. The LREF is also showing 60-80% of its members producing
precipitation of Friday over the area with a weaker trough bringing
30-40% of its members on Sunday.  Highs during the period will be in
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Showers will continue to affect UIN/COU/JEF through 16Z and
STL/SUS/CPS through 03Z. There will be a low threat (<30%) for
thunderstorms, but confidence in timing at any one airport is too
low to include in the TAF at this point. Ceilings and visibilities
in the showers will be MVFR/IFR, but will improve to VFR at UIN
this afternoon and at COU/JEF this evening. Winds will remain
under 10 knots outside of thunderstorms.

Britt

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX